A world order in crisis and transition: contemplating its future

Abstract

The object of this essay is to analyze the world order that was put in place at the
end of World War II and examine how it has unfolded in terms of experience since then. It
outlines the broad contours of change, which reflect shifts in the balance of economic power
in the world, analyzes the evolution of the present world order since it came into existence,
divided into three phases each with a time span of a quarter century, and highlights some important manifestations of the multiple crises in the existing world order, to discuss possible
future scenarios for 2050. In doing so, it asks four questions. Are we witnessing the beginnings
of a transformative change in the world order? Are we at the cusp of an emerging bipolar
world order, with the United States and China as the two superpowers? Are we moving
towards a multi-polar world, in which there will be another 8-10 countries that are also
key players? Are we going to live with a fluid situation and a de facto continuation of Pax
Americana? The most probable outcome, the essay concludes, is that the existing world order,
essentially the default option, will continue.

JEL Classification: F52; F53; F54; F55; N0; N4.