Social security expenditures in Brazil: evolution, diagnosis and perspectives

Abstract

This paper presents the evolution of the components related to the Social Security
expenditures in Brazil. It is shown that between 1980 and 1990 the number of benefits
maintained had a yearly growth rate of 4,8%. This rate was maintained between 1990 and
1996. This fact was explained by the combination of exceptionally negative impacts with
some other specially favourable. In the first case, it is included the duplication, from 1,9 to
3,8 millions of retired people in the rural areas, between 1991 and 1994, while in the second
case the fall of more than 8% in the: benefits excepted retirements and pensions during
the current decade is the most outstanding phenomenon. Based on some hypotheses, some
projections for the Social Security expenditures for the current and the next Government are
made. It is concluded, based on some realistic parameters, that these expenditures should
grow between 4,5 – more probably – and 5,5% by year, as an average, during the next years.

JEL Classification: H55; O15.