The debt crisis: a longer-term perspective

Abstract

The year of 1984 was characterized by important advances in coping with the
developing country’s debt burden. It is no wonder, in view of these gains registered in 1984,
that there is a certain complacency and even smugness regarding the continuing evolution
of the debt problem. This paper examines four principal issues on which the future evolution
of the debt problem depends. First is the influence of international economic activity on
the performance of the debtor countries. Second, is the permanence of developing country
adjustment. Third, is the stability of the new debt regime that is now in place. And fourth is
the likelihood of the new external resources to replace the decline in commercial bank lending
that is generally forecast.

JEL Classification: F32; F34; H63.