Economic change and political shifts: The role of unions in Brazil's deindustrialization era (2002-2022)

Abstract

Studies increasingly demonstrate that deindustrialization impacts electoral performance, affecting left- and right-wing parties differently. However, there is limited analysis of the mechanisms linking deindustrialization to voting patterns. This paper tests the hypothesis that union weakening is a key mediating factor in this relationship. Analyzing Brazilian presidential elections (2002-2022), the study finds that municipalities experiencing both deindustrialization and union decline exhibit stronger effects of industrial loss on voting. The results suggest that the erosion of organized labor, driven by deindustrialization, is crucial to understanding current electoral dynamics, highlighting the importance of this mechanism in shaping political outcomes. 

JEL Classification: A11; C13; C23; D72.