Global shocks in emerging economies: An empirical investigation

Autores

  • Mauro Sayar Ferreira Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais
  • André Cordeiro Valério EPGE-FGV

Palavras-chave:

global shocks, business cycle, uncertainty, commodity price, sovereign spread, SVAR

Resumo

Shocks in commodity prices are viewed as a major driver of emerging economies’ business cycle. We show this is not the case for Brazil, Chile, Colombia, and Peru when a structural vector autoregressive model accounts for macro-finance linkages at world and domestic levels. The presence of a global financial variable modifies established results as it endogenously influences commodity prices. Global demand shocks have been the main external driver of the business cycle in Brazil, Chile, and Peru, while global economic uncertainty shocks have been the main international driver of the Colombian GDP.

Biografia do Autor

Mauro Sayar Ferreira, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais

Departamento de economia da UFMG

Areas: macroeconomia, economia internacional, financas internacionais, macro-financas, VAR

PhD Univ. Illinois

Mestrado USP

 

André Cordeiro Valério, EPGE-FGV

EPGE/FGV

Mestrado em economia - Cedeplar-UFMG

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Publicado

2023-02-06

Edição

Seção

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