Multivariate Threshold Models: TVARs and TVECMs

Abstract

In this paper, I review recent developments on modelling macroeconomic variables with non-linear VARs. Specifically, the class of threshold VARs, including systems with threshold cointegration, is discussed. Techniques for specification, estimation, testing, computing impulse responses and forecasting are presented, including hints for practitioners. In addition, I analyze recent results on the evaluation of this class of models, providing guidance on the application of these models. Finally, a TVAR is applied to extract the information of the spread to predict recessions; and a TVECM is employed to test threshold cointegration in the context of the term structure of interest rates.