Educação, Investimentos Externos e Crescimento Econômico: Evidências Empíricas

Abstract

Using a sensible permanent/transitory decomposition of private output, consumption, and gross investment, we calculate potential output for the Brazilian economy and show that permanent shocks explain almost 100% of the variation of private GDP. We then investigate if potential output has a long-run relationship with the number of years of schooling of the Brazilian labor force, the illiteracy rate of Brazilian labor force, and with direct foreign investment in Brazil. In all three cases we found non-trivial long-run elasticities. Examining the exogeneity status of these variables, jointly with potential output, shows that the latter is strongly exogenous in the sense of Engle, Hendry, and Richard (1983). Policy issues are then discussed.