Os cenários da utilização da energia solar no Brasil no horizonte 1990


  • João Luiz Fonseca dos Santos Universidade Federal da Paraíba. Mestrado de Economia.




It is proposed that solar energy be a complementary part of Brazil's energy development framework. Actually, it may be the only available alternative for certain Brazilian regions. This study consists of the development of a series of hypotheses related to the use existing foreign solar techniques in Brazil. Generally, the present is the point of departure in the construction of "scenarios" defined by Jantsch as "the hypothetical occurence of events, built to point out chains of causation and decision knots". In the case of solar energy, the construction of scenarios starting from the present, as a classific way of exploring the future, would be of minor service due to the fact that most practical utilizations of solar energy in Brazil are still at the experimental stage. Consequently, this article suggests that construction of scenarios based not in the present but on tendencies, produced by integrating various forecasting methods which have been used in the study. A double approach of exploratory and normative scenarios is emphatized in this study. Whithin this approach the method of crossed impacts appears to be especially suitable to increase the level of precision of the probabilities assigned to the chosen scenarios.