Analysis of performance of technical trading rules applied to the market of intraday Ibovespa index futures contracts

Abstract

The purpose of this article is to investigate whether, how and when, from a statistical stand-point, Technical Analysis strategies tools hold true for the futures contract of Ibovespa Index, negotiated at the Brazilian Futures Exchange (“Bolsa Brasileira de Mercadorias e Futuros – BM&F”), using tick-by-tick data. The methodology applied was suggested by Baptista (2002), in a way that the rules are grouped according to similar performance and are validated in subsequent intervals of time. As a result, in all periods and independently of sampling frequency, the strategies over-perform the buy-and-hold strategy, but realistic considerations about transaction costs and timing can reduce the gain.