Prospective scenarios and system dynamics: a model for the footwear sector

Abstract

This research proposes a way of systemically analyzing the footwear sector that integrates the Prospective Scenarios approach and System Dynamics. In doing so the objective is to suggest alternatives that make it possible to analyze, describe and simulate market trends for a period of up to five years. The method described by Grumbach was used for constructing the scenarios, which were subsequently integrated with the ‘hard’ modeling approach of System Dynamics. The results indicate that the proposed approach may contribute when it comes to indicating the opportunities and threats from the external environment and the strengths and weaknesses in the internal environment. The approach also helps when taking strategic decisions and adopting suitable procedures to protect the footwear market in which the research was carried out.