Relação dinâmica entre Ibovespa e variáveis de política monetária

Abstract

The main objective of this study was to investigate the casual relation between a group of variables of monetary politics and the Brazilian stock market, represented here by Ibovespa, using the procedure of Bernanke (1986). This meant to analyze the effect of unexpected shocks in variables of monetary politics on the São Paulo Stock Exchange index, besides the analysis of explanatory power of each variable in the present model on Ibovespa. Data obtained showed that short and long term rates of interest and exchange rates impact contemporaneously the Ibovespa. However, the major sensitivity of the index occurs due to exchange rate, thus indicating the importance exerted by exchange rate in the Brazilian stock market. An unexpected depreciation in exchange rate of 10% impacts negatively the Ibovespa in 11.6%. As impulse reply function, the exchange rate is the best variable with explanatory power on Ibovespa.