Evaluating high-speed rail’s impact on regional tourism performance
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Abstract
Purpose – This study explores the impacts of high-speed rail (HSR) on regional tourism performance. This study aims to identify short-term shocks, medium-term causal effects and long-term dynamic trends and analyze heterogeneous influences across cities with different scales and resource endowments.
Design/methodology/approach – Based on 2005–2023 panel data of Chinese prefecture-level cities, this research adopts the Synthetic Control Method, instrumental variable difference-in-differences and a Bayesian dynamic panel model for multi-angle empirical analysis and conducts multi-dimensional heterogeneity tests.
Findings – HSR significantly boosts tourism gross domestic product, employment and revenue with cumulative lag effects. Its impacts are stronger in large and tourism-intensive cities. Regional disparities exist across geographic areas and urban development levels.
Social implications – The findings support differentiated HSR and tourism policies. It helps balance regional development, promote decent jobs, advance sustainable tourism and ecological governance and align with inclusive growth goals.
Originality/value – This integrated multi-method framework addresses endogeneity and uncertainty. It enriches policy evaluation methods for transport infrastructure and provides references for tourism development worldwide.
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Further reading
Yoo, S., Kumagai, J., & Managi, S. (2024). Urban–rural gap induced by high-speed rail: 35 years of evidence from Japan. Research in Transportation Business & Management, 55, 101131, 10. 1016/j.rtbm.2024.101131.