The effectiveness of income transfers: trends of inequality before and after Bolsa Família program

Abstract

In proposing the use of Markov Chain and differences in the analysis of the effectiveness of Bolsa Família program, this study sought to contribute to the state of the art in applied studies of public policies of income transfer. The combined use of these methods was used in two periods: before the implementation of the program and after it. The results revealed that, after the implementation of Bolsa Família, the “cycle of poverty” presented signs of rupture, due to a tendency of convergence to higher levels of income and because of the likelihood of mitigating the poorest income classes of the Brazilian population. Thus, on long-term, there is the possibility of changing and combating the dynamics of the cycle of poverty and social exclusion in Brazil.