Does P still have value?

Main Article Content

Nelson Lerner Barth
http://orcid.org/0000-0003-2546-4242
Carlos Eduardo Lourenço
http://orcid.org/0000-0002-9278-8282

Abstract

Várias áreas da Ciência - e, em particular, a da Administração - utilizam o paradigma pós-positivista e as técnicas estatísticas do Teste de Hipótese para suas conclusões obtidas a partir de observação ou experimentação. Em que pese o uso generalizado dessas técnicas, percebem-se problemas na interpretação dos achados baseados, forte ou exclusivamente, no valor-p, salientando-se: a) pouco entendimento do verdadeiro significado do valor-p obtido; b) conclusão a partir do valor-p sem examinar o tamanho do efeito; c) p-hacking e HARKing; d) seleção adversa para publicação (ou efeito “gaveta”). Pelo menos um periódico, talvez precipitadamente, simplesmente baniu o uso de valor-p de seus artigos. Discutem-se os cuidados necessários para o uso de valor-p, muitos dos quais não têm sido exigidos ou incentivados na publicação acadêmica.

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

Metrics

Metrics Loading ...

Article Details

How to Cite
BARTH, N. L.; LOURENÇO, C. E. Does P still have value?. RAE - Revista de Administracao de Empresas , [S. l.], v. 60, n. 3, p. 235–241, 2020. DOI: 10.1590/S0034-759020200306. Disponível em: https://periodicos.fgv.br/rae/article/view/81144. Acesso em: 3 jul. 2024.
Section
Essay

References

Amrhein, V., Greenland, S., & McShane, B. (2019). Scientists rise up against statistical significance. Nature, 567(7748), 305-307. doi: 10.1038/d41586-019-00857-9

Bartolucci, A. A., Tendera, M., & Howard, G. (2011). Meta-analysis of multiple primary prevention trials of cardiovascular events using Aspirin. The American Journal of Cardiology, 107(12), 1796-1801. doi: 10.1016/j.amjcard.2011.02.325

Benjamini, Y., & Braun, H. (2002). John W. Tukeys contributions to multiple comparisons. The Annals of Statistics, 30(6), 1576-1594. doi: 10.1214/aos/1043351247

Bettis, R. A. (2012). The search for asterisks: Compromised statistical tests and flawed theories. Strategic Management Journal, 33(1), 108-113. doi: 10.1002/smj.975

Borenstein, M. (2011). Computing effect sizes for meta-analysis. Oxford, Inglaterra: Wiley-Blackwell.

Brito, E. P. Z., Luca, M. M. M., & Teixeira, A J. C. (2017). Considerações sobre Qualis Periódicos – Administração Pública e de Empresas, Ciências Contábeis e Turismo. Recuperado de https://capes.gov.br/images/Qualis_periodicos_2017/Consideracoes_Qualis_Periodicos_Area_27_2017_-_final.pdf

Brodeur, A., Lé, M., Sangnier, M., & Zylberberg, Y. (2016). Star Wars: The empirics strike back. American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, 8(1), 1-32. doi: 10.1257/app.20150044

Byington, E. K., & Felps, W. (2017). Solutions to the credibility crisis in management science. Academy of Management Learning & Education, 16(1), 142-162. doi: 10.5465/amle.2015.0035

Card, N. A. (2012). Applied meta-analysis for social science research. New York, USA: The Guilford Press.

Cohen, J. (1994). The earth is round (p < .05). American Psychologist, 49(12), 997-1003. doi: 10.1037//0003-066x.49.12.997

Colquhoun, D. (2019). The false positive risk: A proposal concerning what to do about p Values. The American Statistician, 73(sup1), 192-201. doi: 10.1080/00031305.2018.1529622

Costa, P . L. O., Neto. (1977). Estatística. São Paulo, SP: Editora E. Blücher.

Evanschitzky, H., Baumgarth, C., Hubbard, R., & Armstrong, J. S. (2007). Replication researchs disturbing trend. Journal of Business Research, 60(4), 411-415. doi: 10.1016/j.jbusres.2006.12.003

García-Pérez, M. A. (2016). Thou shalt not bear false witness against null hypothesis significance testing. Educational and Psychological Measurement, 77(4), 631-662. doi: 10.1177/0013164416668232

Gephart, R. (1999). Paradigms and research methods. [Online] Research Methods Forum, 4(Summer). Recuperado de http://division.aomonline.org/rm/1999_RMD_Forum_Paradigms_and_Research_Methods.htm

Goodman, S. N. (2019). Why is getting rid of p-values so hard? Musings on science and statistics. The American Statistician, 73(sup1), 26-30. doi: 10.1080/00031305.2018.1558111

Kerr, N. L. (1998). HARKing: Hypothesizing after the results are known. Personality and Social Psychology Review, 2(3), 196-217. doi: 10.1207/s15327957pspr0203_4

Kwan, E., & Friendly, M. (2004). Discussion and comments: Strong versus weak significance tests and the role of meta-analytic procedures. Journal de la Societé Française de Statistique, 145(4), 47-53. Recuperado de http://www.numdam.org/item/JSFS_2004__145_4_47_0/

Lehmann, D. R., Gupta, S., & Steckel, J. H. (1998). Marketing research. Reading, USA: Addison-Wesley.

Masicampo, E., & Lalande, D. R. (2012). A peculiar prevalence of p values just below .05. Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology, 65(11), 2271-2279. doi: 10.1080/17470218.2012.711335

Meyer, K. E., Witteloostuijn, A. V., & Beugelsdijk, S. (2017). What’s in a p? Reassessing best practices for conducting and reporting hypothesis-testing research. Journal of International Business Studies, 48(5), 535-551. doi: 10.1057/s41267-017-0078-8

Milone, G. (2004). Estatística: Geral e aplicada. São Paulo, SP: Pioneira Thomson Learning.

Munafò, M. R., Nosek, B. A., Bishop, D. V. M., Button, K. S., Chambers, C. D., Sert, N. P. D., ... Ioannidis, J. P. A. (2017). A manifesto for reproducible science. Nature Human Behaviour, 1, 0021. doi: 10.1038/s41562-016-0021

Navarro, D. J. (2017). Learning statistics with R: A tutorial for psychology students and other beginners (version 0.6). New South Wales, Australia: University of New South Wales. Recuperado de http://compcogscisydney.org/learning-statistics-with-r/

Nosek, B. A., Spies, J. R., & Motyl, M. (2012). Scientific utopia: II. Restructuring incentives and practices to promote truth over publishability. Perspectives on Psychological Science, 7(6), 615-631. doi: 10.1177/1745691612459058

Pollard, P., & Richardson, J. T. (1987). On the probability of making type I errors. Psychological Bulletin, 102(1), 159-163. doi: 10.1037//0033-2909.102.1.159

Promoting reproducibility with registered reports [Editorial]. (2017). Nature Human Behaviour, 1, 0034. doi: 10.1038/s41562-016-0034

Rosenthal, R. (1979). The file drawer problem and tolerance for null results. Psychological Bulletin, 86(3), 638-641. doi: 10.1037/0033-2909.86.3.638

Rozeboom, W. W. (1960). The fallacy of the null-hypothesis significance test. Psychological Bulletin, 57(5), 416-428. doi: 10.1037/h0042040

Shah, S. K., & Corley, K. G. (2006). Building better theory by bridging the quantitative-qualitative divide. Journal of Management Studies, 43(8), 1821-1835. doi: 10.1111/j.1467-6486.2006.00662.x

Simmons, J. P., Nelson, L. D., & Simonsohn, U. (2011). False-positive psychology: Undisclosed flexibility in data collection and analysis allows presenting anything as significant. Psychological Science, 22(11), 1359-1366. doi: 10.1177/0956797611417632

Simmons, J. P., Nelson, L. D., & Simonsohn, U. (2013). Life after p-hacking. In S. Botti & A. Labroo (Eds.), NA: Advances in consumer research (Vol. 41, p. 775). Duluth, USA: Association for Consumer Research. Recuperado de http://www.acrwebsite.org/volumes/1015833/volumes/v41/NA-41

Starbuck, W. H. (2016). 60th Anniversary essay: How journals could improve research practices in social science. Administrative Science Quarterly, 61(2), 165-183. doi: 10.1177/0001839216629644

Sterne, J. A. C., Becker, B. J., & Egger, M. (2005). The funnel plot. In H. R. Rothstein, A. J. Suton, & M. Borentein (Eds.), Publicaton bias in meta-analysis (pp. 75-98). West Sussex, Inglaterra: Wiley.

Sullivan, G. M., & Feinn, R. (2012). Using effect size: Or why the p-value is not enough. Journal of Graduate Medical Education, 4(3), 279-282. doi: 10.4300/jgme-d-12-00156.1

Trafimow, D., & Marks, M. (2015). Editorial. Basic and Applied Social Psychology, 37(1), 1-2. doi: 10.1080/01973533.2015.1012991

Wasserstein, R. L., & Lazar, N. A. (2016). The ASA statement on p-values: Context, process, and purpose. The American Statistician, 70(2), 129-133. doi: 10.1080/00031305.2016.1154108

Wasserstein, R. L., Schirm, A. L., & Lazar, N. A. (2019). Moving to a world beyond “p < 0.05”. The American Statistician, 73(sup1), 1-19. doi: 10.1080/00031305.2019.1583913

Witteloostuijn, A. (2015). What happened to Popperian falsification? A manifesto to create healthier business and management scholarship – towards a scientific Wikipedia. Tilburg, Netherlands: Tilburg University. doi: 10.13140/rg.2.1.2455.6889